For the record – Panthers versus Giants

@ Panthers -6.5 vs Giants

A Panthers team fully rested versus a Giants team full of regret for not having drafted a quarterback in this year’s draft. Panthers to win and cover handily.


Today’s Giants’ narrative will be replaced sometime between now and next season, when the team is certain to acquire a new QB. Price for discounts to the big four of: Barkley, Beckham, Engram and Shepard in the off chance you can catch an impatient, short sighted GM on a bad day. Aside from that very unlikely scenario, throwing a Hail Mark on Kyle Lauletta seems like a reasonable prospect. Prior to the week 9 bye week the Giants face the Panthers, Eagles, Falcons and Washington, and it’s hard to imagine Eli turning things around versus that group. If the switch is made, Lauletta would face the 49ers and Buccaneers in weeks 10 and 11. Any signs of encouragement down the stretch would make him a hot commodity going into 2019.


Colts and Texans

@ Colts -1 over Houston

Andrew Luck’s possibly failing arm at home versus Small Sample Size Watson behind the worst offensive line in the league. Luck hasn’t been as bad as advertised, while the Colts defense has been a pleasant surprise. What has been horrible has been the Texans offensive line, run game and prematurely-anointed hall of fame quarterback. In this game I’m with Vegas – I don’t have a clue who wins. But I fear it will be messy and unpleasant. I suspect the Colts staff might be better to game plan around Luck’s passing deficiencies, but the Texans won’t be able to compensate for an afternoon of jailbreak pass rushes. I also suspect the heat on Bill O’Brien is going to get turned up a notch. Colts to cover.


Buy low, sell high they say. If you sold Luck two + years ago, kudos to you. Pre-injury Luck was a top dynasty asset at the time and you likely made off like a bandit. Two years and a few surgeries later and Luck is quickly dropping down the ranks. Skepticism about his arm is high and replacement value easy to find it seems. Quarterback performances in recent weeks, or just this past Thursday night, have significantly diluted the market. It seems that anyone can put up elite numbers in today’s NFL with its QB and receiver friendly rules. Luck’s price tag will continue to fall with each passing story about his arm. I’d take advantage of this high-risk bargain, as you’d be buying a highly intelligent, seasoned and motivated player who plays half his games in a fast track dome.


Patriots versus Dolphins

@ New England -7.5 over Miami

The Patriots are like that bad guy in the horror movie. They lie motionless and seemingly dead in the background, while the relieved heroic survivors share a sobbing embrace, all the while the movie theatre audience screams “Cut his fucking head off! He’s not fucking dead!! He’s right behind you! He’s getting up!!! The head! Cut off his fucking head!!!” And that’s how I feel about the New England Patriots. They just won’t die, but for the first time in a long time they are looking wounded.

Yes they’ve had slow starts before, and yes people have been making this call for an awfully long time. But something seems a little different this go round. This season they have eked out a win versus a Texans team that might be truly awful, lost to a very good and inspired Jags team and then lost to a Lions team that isn’t scaring anyone. Not a strong start. This is probably the week the Pats pull themselves up off the ground and get their hands back on the axe. The 3-0 Dolphins are probably in for a rough time, but the Patriots effort and execution will be telling. If this is not a resounding win/statement game for New England, 2018 may be an actual turning point. But until the head is officially off, I’m not betting against the Pats ability to rise to the occasion, and cover.


The Patriots, as they are wont to do, defied convention by rostering the bare minimum of wide receivers. Gronk plus a smorgasbord or wideouts and quasi-receiver running backs were to be enough for New England. Injury and mediocrity have reared their heads though, and now the Patriots seem to be groping for their go to personnel. Julian Edelman will return, and Gronk will certainly improve, but that might not be enough. The absence of underrated 2017 stalwarts Dion Lewis and Brandin Cooks are now being felt.

The frugal Patriots opted not to pay those monster contributors, and decided instead to draft Sony Michel and have since had Josh Gordon gifted to them. If the aforementioned monster is to awaken from his seemingly premature death, Gordon and Michel will have to play significant roles.

Gordon is a strange situation. He’s a long absent, once super talented wideout going to a team that has a long history of failed wide receiver acquisitions (Ocho Cinco, Kenny Britt, every draft pick at the position ever) along with several amazing pick-ups: Moss, Welker, Amendola. There are understandably mixed feelings about Gordon along with some real questions about whether New England is a spot he can succeed.

I suspect Gordon will be slow to pick up the Pats offense, having arrived late to the party and not being familiar with the nuances of the Pats offense or having any chemistry with Brady. Recall how Sammy Watkins late arrival to the Rams played out last season. If Gordon doesn’t impress early I’d imagine that many impatient owners will be quick to part ways with him. The “I told you so” crowd will not be shy and they will certainly shake the confidence of some Gordon holders. And this will be the opportunity.

The Patriots, as noted above, get stronger as the season goes on. They adjust and re-adjust and save their best players for when it matters most. Down the stretch last season one of the key components to New England’s success was Dion Lewis, a player who was used sparingly in the early going to preserve the oft injured back’s health. While not saving Gordon from injury, Belichick and McDaniels will take their time with Gordon, readying him for the late season kill shot. It’s hardly a certainty, but given how ill-equipped this team currently appears, Gordon could be a late season necessity for a team with win-now intentions. With this in mind, if and when this next period of 3 – 5-week period brings a likely Gordon dip, we should all be aggressive buyers.

Also, buy Sony Michel, because he will have to matter as well.

For the record – Rams vs Vikings

@ Rams -6.5 over Minnesota

On the surface, it’s the 3-0 Rams versus a Vikings team who just lost to Buffalo, at home.

So the narrative might go like this: the humiliated Vikings will be out for blood and Zimmer will have them on their toes. Easier said than done. The Vikings offensive line is likely not up to the task of the Rams defense. Cook and Cousins will have little time to generate yards, despite their best efforts. It is hard to imagine a game plan that would compensate for the fatal flaw of no blocking.

In devil’s advocate terms, a case could be made that the Rams are a bit of a mirage, given that two of their three wins came against the seemingly lowly Raiders and Cards. It’s feasible that the Rams come in overconfident and aren’t ready for the Vikings fury, but I doubt it. The Vikings’ holes are just too big.

And those holes do not begin and end with their offensive line. The early season 2018 defense has been a serious downgrade from last year’s unit.

Again, Minnesota will be fired up for this one, they will likely put up a good fight for a few quarters,  but I think in the end their shortcomings will be revealed, and the Rams will take advantage. Rams to cover.


Still buying all the Brandon Cooks you will sell me. Again, he’s younger than both Woods and Kupp, considerably more talented then either and has the speed to take advantage of defenses preoccupied with Todd Gurley. He, along with Goff and Gurley are signed for the foreseeable future. There are years and years of top ten points to be had here, and yet 2017 Watkins comparisons have him undervalued. Another big week and that skepticism is likely to disappear.

Dalvin Cook is likely in for a rough ride this week and his early season lackluster numbers may have some owners ready to talk. Next week against Philly may be equally discouraging for stakeholders. It may not happen this year, but eventually this offensive line will get better and we will all be reminded of pre-injury 2017 Cook.

For the record – week 3

Weekly picks and dynasty transactions

@ Jags 6.5 over Titans

Hard to believe that the Titans, missing so many starters, were able to beat the Texans last week. It’s harder still to imagine a scenario where they are able to keep it close versus a very impressive Jags team. Of course, this could be viewed as a trap game as the Jags may be a little overconfident coming off their win versus New England, but I’m going to bet the momentum, and Titans injuries/inferiority carry them through. Jags to cover.


The window to buy Keelan Cole is closing rapidly. Fast, capable receivers who make hay off of play action on a team that wants to run the ball, is a very good recipe. The fact that the likes of highly regarded Matt Waldman and Matt Harmon are pounding the table here, suggests the price should climb considerably as more evidence is provided to support Cole’s case. Get him if you still can.

@ Chiefs 6.5 over 49ers

An early season battle of small-sample-sized, offseason darling QBs. At the moment Mahomes owners are likely dividing their time between giddiness and skepticism. It has been an incredible start, one that is set for certain regression. This week marks Mahomes’ Arrowhead debut, a stadium that has been historically unfavourable to visiting teams, and I’m guessing the fans will be jacked up for this one. Satiating the hometown fans will be a new test for Mahomes. In the face of such expectations we’ll see how the young QB reacts. Will he press a little looking for the big play and create some long-overdue turnovers, or will the honeymoon continue? Let’s bet he doesn’t disappoint. Chiefs to cover.


Buy Spencer Ware. Andy Reid has a history of supporting multiple backs. Ware was the starter before getting hurt last year, and should Hunt get falter or get Hurt, Ware is an immediate RB1/2. This is fertile soil for all offensive weapons and Ware should grow too.

@ Panthers 2.5 over Bengals

Home favourites are certainly a thing this week. I’ve been reluctant to join the Bengals early season bandwagon and see no reason to do so this week on the road. This isn’t an easy call though, but when in doubt, on a tight spread like this it is wise to bet on the home team. Take the Panthers to win and cover.


Wonderful as he’s been, I think now is the time to see what the market has to offer on Cam Newton. While he’s only 29 years old, as Indiana Jones once said “It’s not the years it’s the mileage” and there are plenty of those on this run first quarterback. Recent QB entries into the league are changing the QB landscape, as new names emerge Cam’s star could very well fade. Why not see if there isn’t a buyer out there.

@ Falcons 3.5 over Saints

These are two teams that are struggling to find their bearings. Both are 1-1 and have given little in the way of confidence-inspiring play. The Saints barely escaped week two against the Browns after getting embarrassed by the Buccaneers. Sean Payton won’t allow them to flounder for long and it seems more likely that he resolves what ails the Saints (defense it would seem) versus Atlanta’s spotty passing game and red zone issues, which, as far as colors go, would more aptly be called a black hole. Saints to cover and win.


If and when the Falcons do fix their red zone issues, Julio Jones will be a certain beneficiary, but so to will Austin Hooper. The very talented Hooper has produced very little to date, but this season he has been targeted multiple times in the red zone and managed to score last week. Many seem to have given up on the 23-year old, third year receiver, but the tight end position takes time to develop, particularly those tight ends who are not quasi receivers. Hooper is being developed into an all-around tight end, making major strides in his run blocking last season. He has more than enough talent to figure out the receiving game. Balanced tight end, those who can block and be a threat are becoming a rarer commodity in today’s NFL. If Hooper puts it all together he should be around for a very long time. Go get him, he’s cheap.

@ Vikings 16.5 over Bills

16.5 is a big number but if anyone can’t cover that big a spread, it’s the Bills. Take the Vikes to cover.


I have long been a Laquon Treadwell apologist, urging patience on a talented player who would eventually figure it out. And while you don’t need to be told this: cut him. He’s not rosterable. And if like me you had some ridiculous loyalty to him, if he ever pops at some point down the road you’ll be the only person putting a waiver claim on him.

And yes, this isn’t added value advice, but for me it’s a cathartic admission of failure, a mea culpa. My name is Jason and I am a Laquon Treadwell addict.

No more damnit. No more.

@ Eagles 6.5 over Colts

Carson Wentz is back but several of his weapons are gone. Ships passing in the night it seems. While everyone remembers how great Wentz was last year and how much they loved him, everyone seems to be forgetting Andrew Luck. It wasn’t so long ago that he was the second coming of Peyton Manning, and I think those dismissing him and his repaired shoulder are going to be reminded of that several times this season. One of those times will be this weekend. Colts to cover.


The window to buy Andrew Luck is still open. People suspect his shoulder is a time bomb, they forget his first years in the league, they are distracted by the shiny new toys with names like Wentz and Watson and Mahomes, but what if Luck continues to progress, continues to throw deeper? What if Colts management has learned they need to protect their QB? What if that defense is horrible and the Colts have to throw for the new 5-10 years? Luck is a good buy low candidate as a player who could be top 5 again before long.

@ Dolphins 3.5 over Raiders

The Raiders have been dreadful and Jon Gruden has become a punching bag in the football community. The Dolphins are off to an unexpected 2-0 start. Those wins came against a Titans team that suffered a string of injuries in the week 1 contest and then the Jets in Sam Darnold’s second ever start. Both of those teams might actually be horrible. This smells like a let down game for Miami. The Raiders meanwhile, have lost to a dominant Rams team and just barely lost to the Broncos, in Denver. Take the Raiders to cover and win.


As long-term investments go, I can’t see any I’d willingly make to any player on either of these teams and that includes the hot and cold Amari Cooper. Cooper receives a tremendous amount of coverage in the fantasy community thanks to his skill set and early career success. He may very well prove to be a serviceable starting WR for years to come, but at this point the conversation about him being an elite receiver should be over.

@ Ravens 5.5 over Broncos

The Ravens at home, coming off a loss versus a Denver team travelling across the country for the early game with a banged up (and possibly lousy) quarterback. Both of these teams still seem unsettled to me. The Broncos are 2-0 on two tight wins at home against two teams that appear to be in disarray. A new coaching staff next year and a new Quarterback mid-year would not surprise me in Denver. The Ravens offense is loaded with new names. Each week they should get a little more familiar with one and other. I think Mornhinweg starts to get this offense working this week. Take the Ravens to win and cover.


The buying window is closing on John Brown. After looking good in the pre-season, he put up 90+ yards last week when he had to, and 40 plus versus Buffalo when he didn’t. Flacco’s deep ball makes him an interesting play this year, but if he is able to manage his health issue long-term, a future as Lamar Jackson’s target offers real value.

In buy extremely low terms, I am holding out hope that the possible week 11 return of Kenneth Dixon may finally reward us Dixon-truthers. The wait has been long and painful and this is likely one of his last chances to shine in Baltimore. He’s a bottom of the roster waiver wire pickup between now and late October.

Possibly cheaper, probably somewhere between Brown and Dixon is Broncos QB2 Chad Kelly. Kelly is a favourite of the aforementioned Matt Waldman and it would appear Keenum will afford him a chance to audition at some point this season, possibly as early as this week. He’s a big upside stash if you can make some roster space.

@ Texans 6.5 over Giants

After watching the first two weeks it’s hard to imagine how anyone can comfortably bet the Giants here. The Texans are still trying to find their footing and playing the Giants at home is a great place to do it. Watson production has reverting to the mean as predicted, but given this week’s matchup and the outside motivation from a local school superintendent, this feels like a week he could pop. The bench Eli drumbeat also seems eager to intensify. Texans to cover.


The early season swoon for the Giants makes it an opportunity for patient buyers to go fishing for the likes of Beckham and Barkley. And while it’s unlikely a big discount is available on either, kicking the tires on Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram might be worth your time. And if you have the roster space, Kyle Lauletta is eventually getting to audition with all four of those guys, isn’t he?

Packers 2.5 over @ Washington

This all hinges on how well Rodgers can play on his leg and a half. Washington beat the lowly Cardinals and then looked dreadful last week against the Colts. Now they host a Green Bay team that is adding Aaron Jones to its backfield. Alex Smith is still getting acquainted with an offense that has several new pieces. It might take a few more weeks, and a weaker opponent before they can figure it all out. Packers to cover.


In rebuild mode I’d be trying to acquire any of the Green Bay assets that may be slightly diminished by Rodgers limitations. I doubt there is much discount there but is worth pricing now and in the coming weeks if the offense falters.

Impatient or win-now owners may be willing to part ways with Derrius Guice at a reasonable price.

@ Rams 7.5 over Chargers

The Rams have been dominant against the Raiders and dreadful Cardinals. This week they play against a Chargers team that won’t be so easily pushed around. The Rams are no doubt among the elite, but their pre-season ends this Sunday and Philip Rivers and the Chargers may catch them off guard. Chargers to cover.


I’m a broken record here, but this is just a monthly reminder that Brandin Cooks is slightly younger than Woods and Kupp and vastly more talented than both. Cooks is a receiver-in-full: speed, route running and adaptability. It doesn’t hurt either that he plays against defenses that are terrified of Todd Gurley. Stacked boxes and play action will be his friends for years to come. He’s signed, Gurley is signed and Goff is signed. This is a long-term situation that should only improve with time. Time for you to sign up to the Cooks truther camp. This is a top 10 receiver for the next 5 to 7 years.

@ Seahawks 1.5 over Cowboys

A reminder: both of these coaching staffs will be replaced this offseason. Second reminder, Russell Wilson is greater than anything Dallas has to offer. Seahawks to cover.


Sign me up for anyone selling Russell Wilson shares. At 29 Wilson has produced a handful of MVP candidate seasons. He has done so all while being poorly protected by his offensive line, provided modest weaponry in the passing game and been hamstrung by a coaching staff who thinks their best course is to “pound the rock”. At some point a rational decision will be made and Wilson will be able to play without one hand tied behind his back.

And yes, I realize Newton and Wilson are the same age and that they have both paid a price physically. The difference is, I believe Wilson has all the passing game tools to adjust his game over time, while I’m skeptical Newton can.

I’m also a cautious buyer of Tyler Lockett. I’ve been waiting 2+ years, what’s one more.

Bears 6.5 over @ Cardinals

The Bears defense was very impressive last week versus Seattle. They have announced their arrival as a unit to be taken seriously. The offense in Chicago, meanwhile, remains a bit of a work in progress. In Arizona nothing has worked. I’d wager there is enough veteran pride and leadership in the Cardinals room to turn things around this week, and at the very least keep this home game a close one. Cards to cover.


In horrible calls for 2018, my worst has been that David Johnson would be the fantasy MVP. In the early going that appears to be a total disaster and I’m not holding my breath for a turnaround/. The logic was simple: volume and garbage time should equal big passing yardage as the Cards make late game efforts against prevent type defenses. That obviously has not materialized. That being said, for those able to sit and wait on Johnson, it’s worth seeing how a motivated seller might have him valued.

Patriots 6.5 over @ Lions

Bill Belichick coming off a loss, playing against a struggling team headed by one of his former assistant coaches, and a vastly overrated one in my estimation. I suspect this could be a high scoring affair, and I anticipate Gronk bounces back from a frustrating week 2 versus Jacksonville. Pats win this track meet and cover.


Broken record suggestions here: Buy Gronk, he’s not retiring, buy Sony Michel, buy Kenny Golladay, take a shot on Josh Gordon, sell Tom Brady, sell Julian Edelman, sell Chris Hogan.

Steelers 1.5 over @ BUCCANEERS

I love Ryan Fitzpatrick and hope there is plenty of magic yet to come, but this week I think the Steelers will be desperate to get their season headed in the right direction. Expect a monster game from drama queen Antonio Brown and mix in a little Juju. The Buccs will likely keep this a track meet, but the Steelers will prevail. Take the Steelers to cover.


Juju Smith-Schuster is still only 21 years old. Antonio Brown, like many Steelers star receivers before him, may find himself, regrettably retiring in another team’s colors. Whether he finishes his career in Pittsburgh or not won’t matter to Juju. Like Brandin Cooks, he is both highly regarded and underrated.

For the record – week 2 (plus season predictions)


Here’s a look at the week two matchups, who I like in each matchup and what fantasy players I may be loading up on or avoiding. Also, because I missed last week I will be plugging in a few season predictions, where relevant.

@ Steelers 5.5 over Chiefs

Coming off an uninspired tie versus the Browns the Steelers should be focused for this matchup. While I think the Steelers manage the win, I expect this could be a high scoring affair and the most exciting game of the week. Take the Steelers.

I’d own just about everyone for both teams in this one, with a slight tilt away from Tyreek Hill and towards Watkins and Kelce, who I think get some Mahomes love. Antonio Brown should also make up for a mediocre (by his standards) week 1.

Season prediction: Week 1 was a preview of things to come. The Chiefs will be the most fun team to watch for the foreseeable future, with an explosion of fantasy points to come; enough to make Sammy Watkins relevant once again.

Texans 0.5 over @ Titans

The Titans are missing half of their offensive line, possibly their starting quarterback and their number 1 passing target. Watson and the Texans are coming off of a lackluster week 1. This could be an absolute slaughter. Take the Texans.

Heavy ownership of Watson – Hopkins stack, who are likely to remind us of 2017 this week. Heavy ownership of Corey Davis who could inherit all of Walker’s targets, and then some.

Season prediction: Corey Davis will crack the top 15. Watson will come back to earth.

Chargers 7.5 over @ Bills

Another good team coming off a bad week one against a team in total disarray. The west coast team travelling across the country to play a 1 pm game is certainly a factor, but given Buffalo’s offensive woes, the Chargers should easily overcome.

Heavy ownership of Melvin Gordon. Medium-high ownership of Allen. That’s it.

Season prediction: Tyrell will be better than Mike Williams.

@ Packers 1.5 over Minnesota

Probably the toughest call of the week. A limited, if available Rodgers, versus Minnesota’s ferocious defense. It’s a coin flip game and my coin says Vikes.

In DFS terms I have very light ownership here, with the exception of a modest stake in Diggs.

Season prediction: By year end Laquon Treadwell matters.

Eagles 3.5 over @ Buccs

Defending champions versus the overconfident Buccaneers. I’ll side with the Philly D over another week of Fitzmagic.

In fantasy terms only Nelson Agholor gets me excited, and another week or Chris Godwin highlights is a possibility. I’m avoiding Evans and both backfields.

@ Falcons 6.5 over Panthers

Another team I had high hopes for that crapped the bed in week 1. Atlanta gets back on track at home and solves their red zone woes, while the Panthers adjust (again) to life without Olsen.

In DFS I will take all the shares of Julio I can get. Tevin Coleman is priced cheaply and will be heavily owned this week. I’m also on board for Austin Hooper who could get some red zone looks. McCaffrey may also absorb some Olsen targets and inflate his value.

Season prediction: Ryan serves up Julio 12+ TD passes.

@ Saints 9.5 over Browns

Sean Payton gets the Browns at home 1 week after an embarrassing loss at home to Tampa. Lightening will not strike twice. The Browns, as their known to do, compounded their problems by announcing Josh Grown will be cut Monday morning. Nothing like taking the focus off the task at hand and creating some locker room drama hours before a big road game.

Obvious owns are Kamara, Brees, Thomas. Less obvious is David Njoku who is a ticking bomb ready to explode this season. Gordon’s absence could make that a reality sooner rather than later.

Season prediction: Nick Chubb has 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Njoku has 800+ yards and 6 TDs.

@ Washington 6.5 over Colts

Difficult to get a feel for this one as both teams adjust to new or renewed quarterback situations. Given Washington’s at home and has what seems to be a more formidable defense, I’m erring on the side of the home team. The Colts feel like a team needing another week or two to figure out who their go to guys are.

I can’t say I own anyone here for DFS purposes. Unsettled backfield for Indy, questions about who the TE1 and WR2 are make only Hilton an option. For Washington both running backs and Reed have appeal.

Season prediction: Jordan Reed re-emerges as a top 5 tight end.

@ Jets 3.5 over Dolphins

Very impressive start for Sam Darnold. First start and an impressive home win. I’ll opt for Gas end the Dolphins here though. Home opener pressure coming of the big week one win is a recipe for disappointment.

DFS wise there isn’t anyone ownable. The Enunwa target share stood out in week one, but overreacting to one week is always a bad idea. I’d consider Stills the only startable weekly play.

Season prediction: Kenny Stills coming out party.

@ Rams 12.5 over Cards

Difficult to argue with this line. The Rams looked as good as the Cards looked bad, and they’re at home. This one should get out of hand quickly.

So, everyone will have Gurley, but I’d tease in some Cooks here as well as he reminds the rest of the WR room that he is head and shoulders above them.

Season prediction: A week ago I would have typed: David Johnson finishes as the highest scoring running back on the season. Not looking good so far, but I’m sticking to my guns and they don’t have to play the Rams every week.

Season prediction 2: Brandin Cooks finishes as WR1 on this team. Not Watkins 2.0.

@ 49ers 5.5 over Lions

Two week one losers face off. The Niners lost to a potentially great Vikings team in Minnesota while the Lions were shamed at home by a possibly horrible Jets squad led by a rookie QB in his first ever game. Matt Patricia was a suspect defensive coordinator last year in New England, this year he seems to have immediately rubbed everyone in Detroit the wrong way. Another Patriots coordinator about to disappoint as a head coach…

Fantasywise: George Kittle in DFS, along with some Alfred Morris and a little Kenny Golladay for garbage time.

Season prediction: None of the RBs on the San Fran roster are the next big thing and next year a new name will be atop of everyone’s list for Shanahan bump.

Patriots 1.5 over @ Jags

I’m betting the Jags take this one. The Pats look like a team still trying to figure out their personnel and the Jags have the disappointment of 2017 to fuel their fire. Get ready for lots of trash talking from Ramsay with whispers of Brady looking his age.

DFS-wise I would still take Gronk, and I’d also look to get some TJ Yeldon and Keelan Cole.

Season predictions: Career year for a healthy Gronk. Brady starts to look his age. While for the Jags Keelan Cole takes the strangle hold as WR1 on the team with 1,000+ yards, a ton from play action.

@ Broncos 5.5 over Raiders

Taking the Broncos here. The Denver home field advantage plus Gruden talking as though he will use the full ten years of his contract to turn the Raiders ship around. Denver Defense at home versus a shaken and stirred Oakland offense. Yes please.

In DFS there is no obvious own here. Emmanuel Sanders perhaps. Not buying the Cook week 1 production. Low Raiders output likely.

Season prediction: Amari Cooper is not good. Ditto Carr. Lynch becomes frustrated and vocal. Things fall apart.

In Denver I hope, more than predict, that we see Chad Kelly asap. And of we do, he will be every bit as good as what Keenum can provide.

@ Cowboys 3.5 over Giants

The Giants’ offense is the antithesis of the Cowboys’. Great weapons and no offensive line versus, a once great offensive line and no weapons. The one thing they seem to have in common is mediocre QB play. I’ll take the Eli bounce back via his many weapons over Dak playing with one.

I’m passing on all Cowboys, Zeke included. I’m buying Barkely and Beckham this week, heavily.


Season prediction: Eli will be better, Dak, Engram and Zeke will be worse.

@ Bears 3.5 over Seattle

Russell Wilson > Matt Nagy hysteria. Rome wasn’t built in a day and if Nagy is actually half as good as his hype, this Bears team may get themselves headed in the right direction. Wilson will be pressured by Mack and company but should have more than enough to keep pace with Trubisky in this one.

In DFS terms I’m buying Wilson, buying the Lockett big game and nibbling on Howard and Cohen.

Season Prediction: Wilson puts up MVP numbers but doesn’t win the MVP. Lockett has a 1,000 yard season and this is PETE CARROLL’S last season.

Dynasty Tight End Rankings

Tight End Rankings
Tight End    Reason
Rob Gronkowski Still head and shoulders above the rest of the league
Travis Kelce Steady at #2
Zach Ertz Still holding the typical #3 spot, but most likely to fall of the top three due to Goedert
David Njoku Has all the physical and mental tools needed to succeed. If Cleveland emerges, he could lead.
Hunter Henry A lost year but still only 23.
Evan Engram Volume questions persist after rookie year bolstered by being only healthy body in town.
Kyle Rudolph Red Zone TD hog.
Jordan Reed If not for the injury concerns, he would be #3 on this list
Tyler Eifert Same story as Reed, if healthy he is much more valuable.
OJ Howard Targets is a near-term concern, coaching turn-over a long term question.
George Kittle Small sample size, but could very well be a red zone star.
Trey Burton An offseason darling who has run up based on a handful of games and optimistic speculation. Show me.
Jimmy Graham Injuries have made him a shadow of his former self. Rodgers could propel him higher.
Ricky Seals-Jones Hot finish on a team in desperate need on offensive targets. Could make a serious leap.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins New team, new role. Wait and see approach.
Austin Hooper A now or never year for Hooper. All the talent needed, none of the production.

Dynasty WR ranks

I’m skeptical of rookies until proven otherwise. And given the track record of rookie WRs its reasonable to think they will be available at more reasonable prices in years two and three.

Here’s how I’m valuing them now, or how I think they’ll be valued come year end.

Dynasty WR Ranks
Wide Receiver Reason
DeAndre Hopkins He doesn’t catch the ball. He attacks it. He owns it. A beast with a QB on the rise
Keenan Allen PPR beast, technician, not going anywhere for a very long time.
Odell Beckham Big market noisy and likely to face a QB transition give me pause.
Antonio Brown He’s Antonio Brown
Julio Jones A beast off a bad year. He’s got production and trade value to spare.
AJ Green Forever tied to Julio, though anchored by a QB, coach and organization.
Stefon Diggs He might be Antonio Brown 2.0
Doug Baldwin Just like the next guy except his Drew Brees is considerably younger.
Michael Thomas Brees sunset coming. Questions about what he is in aftermath.
Brandin Cooks New teams, new playbooks: no problem. 24 years old with three 1,000 yards seasons. Yes please.
Corey Davis QB and rookie season questions loom, but I remain a believer this staff makes it work.
Sammy Watkins Home at last. Great potential fit. It’s now or never for this once highly regarded talent.
Davante Adams Prove it year. If he does he jumps 5+ spots. Otherwise a rookie is making big leaps.
Tyreek Hill Strange player with hug opportunity to modernize the no helmet tackle era.
Josh Gordon One time stud with a giant hiatus. All the tools and now possibly the brain to match.
Mike Evans Yes, way down here. Big body era gone by? Question marks at QB and coach? I prefer certainty.
T.Y. Hilton If Luck is right, he climbs but Tommy John is no joke.
Juju Smith Schuster Surprisingly mature, surprisingly young, excellent teal with a track record at WR development.
Amari Cooper Yes, way down here. If he cares he’ll be good to great. He hasn’t cared yet.
Jarvis Landry A boring track record that can’t be argued with. Cleveland is as good or better than Miami, no?
Kenny Golloday Potential beast with an under-loved QB who will have Rivers/Roethlisberger love in a year.
Golden Tate A new era WR that arrived too early. Still more yards to come.
Kenny Stills Under the radar #1 in Miami and not going away any time soon. Also 26.
Chris Godwin He’s 22, Evans is likely overrated and TB is in transition. I think his contract sees the other side.
Tyler Lockett Now or never season for this one time high upside 25 year old.
Cameron Meredith Nice recipe for fantasy jolt playing with Brees. 25 years old.
Sterling Shepard Meredith without the Brees bump. ODB counterweight.
Allen Robinson Once loved, loved again but many questions to be answered.
Keelan Cole Most of his yards in 17 came from play action. Fournette should provide more opportunity.
Nelson Agholor Wentz still needs another #1. Maybe Jeffrey?


Dynasty Running Back Rankings

As the title suggests, these are my Dynasty RB rankings, and by that I mean how I would trade for them now, or how I would anticipate them being ranked at year end.

These will tick many of you off, and make others question my sanity.

But these are my guns, and I’m sticking with them (until further notice).

Dynasty RB Rankings
Running back Reasons why
Todd Gurley Complete package RB, coaching staff with a long leash and a great D is a perfect storm for success.
David Johnson Talent on par with Gurley, with slightly less coaching security.
Leveon Bell Uber talent who deserves to be paid uber dollars. Unfair league makes investing a challenge.
Alvin Kamara Coaching and offense bullettproof. Brees departure and evolution are volume question marks.
Saquon Barkley A better buy post hype. Still risks being a larger Reggie Bush. Let’s wait on this, sell him if you’ve got’em.
Ezekiel Elliott Egomaniac owner, incompetent coach, eroding talent pool = nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.
Christian McCaffrey New age running back under horrible coaching and RB circumstances. He may see better tomorrow.
Dalvin Cook All the tools, save health and offensive line. Buy low candidate under what could be a disappointing 2018.
Melvin Gordon Win now asset with a sunset in sight.
Leonard Fournette A TD hammer who can catch passes on an up and coming dominant D. Sign me up.
Jordan Howard A discount version of Fournette who offers alpha if he figures out the screen pass.
Devonta Freeman As Indiana Jones once said “it’s not the years, it’s the mileage”.
Kareem Hunt Guess what. Spencer Ware is probably better.
Nick Chubb In Matt Waldman I trust.
Joe Mixon A horrible human being and a horrible organization intersect, peppered in hype. I’ll take Gio as a value.
Jamaal Williams A complete back playing with the best QB in the game for 3+ years. Yes please.
Jay Ajayi Who the hell knows. Bad knees + bad press + split backfield.
Mark Ingram He’s not so old and will find a new home, or maybe even the same one given the RB market.
Royce Freeman In two years Sanders and Thomas are gone. Who’s left other than the great D? #poundtherock
Lamar Miller Great situation for the easy to replace Miller.
Kenyan Drake Very easy to committee away or turn the page on. Not a long-term investment.
Alex Collins May hang on for a stubbornly long time, but just a place holder.
Tarik Cohen Maybe 3 years early before we adopt full touch football mode. But maybe not…
Kerryon Johnson No startable RBs since #20 retired prematurely. I’m not holding my breath here.
Peyton Barber For all the reasons I can’t cheer for Mixon, I can cheer for Barber.
Kenneth Dixon Fantasy community has quit him, het he’s a Collins hammy away from being RB1 behind a stud O-line.
Spencer Ware Andy Reid is Shanahan RB success without the hysteria. Huge year pre-Hunt who was up and down.
TJ Yeldon All around talent in a great situation with oft-injured Fournette as his only hurdle. Free agent darling to be.
Alex Jones If the other guy doesn’t work out, this is a nice hedge. Also pretty affordable.
Jerick McKinnon Shanahan mythology aside, they failed as much as they hit and always found another guy.
Ronald Jones Drafted by a GM and coach who will be gone next year. A mistake that may be swept under the rug.
Rashaad Penny Same situation, same rug. I’d draft Carson and Prosise before him.



Dynasty QB Ranks

First of all, everyone’s dynasty roster is in a different state. If you’re going for it you’ll happily trade an unproven rookie for a stable senior citizen QB.

The list below is how I would view these players’ trade values for the season ahead.

Rank Player Age Comment
1 Russell Wilson 29 MVP/HOF calibre despite coaching
2 Aaron Rodgers 34 MVP/HOF calibre despite coaching
3 Matt Stafford 30 Steady as she goes. Crazy weapons
4 Cam Newton 29 Feels like a time bomb
5 Andrew Luck 28 Higher if he’s right
6 Carson Wentz 25 1 more season cements value
7 Marcus Mariota 24 Lofty position that needs to be earned
8 Deshaun Watson 22 Nice start, show me more
9 Matt Ryan 33 A strong career finish coming
10 Jared Goff 23 Progress, but mighty D/Run game is a ceiling
11 Lamar Jackson 21 Runs and throws well
12 Pat Mahomes 22 Throws well and runs
13 Jameis Winston 24 Maturity misteps proving to be an anchor
14 Jimmy Garoppolo 26 Overhyped, overpriced
15 Philip Rivers 36 Shot put gold medalist
16 Ben Roethlisberger 36 Armed with star-studded cast
17 Drew Brees 39 Last gasp: return of the air game
18 Mitch Turbisky 23 Mariota, with a coaching headstart
19 Josh Rosen 21 He can take this job early
20 Eli Manning 37 Roethlisberger-like cast
21 Sam Darnold 21 Ideally he is afforded a learning year
22 Tom Brady 41 Old man vs AFC east
23 Baker Mayfield 23 Has to overcome a curse od Cleveland
24 Kirk Cousins 29 New team/system. Not as young as you think
25 Blake Bortles 26 Underhyped, underpriced
26 Derek Carr 27 Possibly horrible
27 Chad Kelly 24 Probably best Broncos QB now
28 Dak Prescott 25 Must overcome lack of coaching and weapons
29 Alex Smith 34 You’re not in Kansas (City) anymore
30 Andy Dalton 30 Boring us into submission. Possible surprise
31 Teddy Bridgewater 25 Deserves a chance to be a #1
32 Josh Allen 22 Poison narrative makes him a value play
33 Ryan Tannehill 30 Reclamation project. Perhaps Gase turns it around
34 Mason Rudolph 23 Long wait behind stubborn jerk
35 Kyle Lauletta 22 Probably not the heir apparent but a lifetime backup
36 Case Keenum 30 Journeyman killing time looking for QB1
37 Joe Flacco 33 The big yawn. Lamar push may provide minor lift
38 Tyrod Taylor 29 Denied a real shot, Cleveland will rush Mayfield